“Let’s Fall in Love”

April 9, 2007


Ordinarily, this would be the last day of February, but March came early in these parts. In fact, it’s been around about three weeks, and the 10-day forecast predicts March will hang around well into March. Of course, the 10-day forecast is notoriously unreliable, especially in March.


45 thoughts on ““Let’s Fall in Love””

  1. I’m currently losing $1000 a minute on what stocks I still held. I say held because I don,t anymore. My selling will have no effect on the market anymore than my vote will decide the next election, assuming we have one.

    Reply
    • Yes, you are a good capitalist, and a responsible gambler. You went to Pimlico Park and wagered 17.50 on horse #45 in the 115th running. The parimutuel paid 12.00, and you walked away with 29.50 rather than sticking in to parlay the winnings. Well done. Not every punter has the discipline to walk when he should.

      In October of 2016, every news agency assured us of an administration sworn to continue the policies of the one stepping down. Then November gave us different news and the market took of like a shot. The president elect had done nothing. But nothing the sitting administration had done sparked such activity in ninety-four months. Nor could it do anything in the next sixty days to alter it. The market responds to its own motivations. Relieved of the burden, it has honestly worried me how fast it has grown. But I feared jinx and would never use the rhyme for America’s Original Dubble (mumbble) Gum. Name another 27 month period with a two-thirds return over principle on the thirty pack of “industrial” stocks that is the Dow Jones. An amazing run. Other indices have also performed approximately as well. But DJ writes the headlines.

      You picked the right time to get out. Ahead of the correction. And here you are attempting to feed the panic and cause the downfall of many a worker’s holdings. Congratulations. Like a good miser, you’ve got yours. I hope you are able to time your reentry to the market with such precision. Because this market will land on it’s fundamentals and begin to rise again. Losses will be regained, and more. If you have sold high and buy cheap you will surpass my own holdings, locked as they are with my compatriot’s funds. Together we will do all right. No one demands you to lend a hand, grab the line, and haul with the rest of us. The market is completely voluntary. We like it that way.

      Celebrate, sir. You have the right to take profit and even withdraw altogether when it suits your whim and requirements. It is a free country. You have taken your portion of our earnings and withdrawn the strength of your capital from our pool of funds. Job well done. You have succeeded in your individual pursuit of dollars over the well being of our common market. You have earned the right to gloat. Buy the next round of refreshments. A small token of goodwill warms the hearts of friends. Cheers.

      To revisit the opening metaphor, as I write this, the imaginary winnings are approximately 7.75. That is not good. But still losing “house money” gained after November 2016. Everyone should do what is in their own best interest. Only our interests are different. Your voice and your vote, like your capital investment, does matter. It is unfortunate that you do not see yourself as a contributing member of this great group of Americans. Have a nice day.

      Reply
      • Well said, and accurate.

        When we had the last downturn, I held on and even bought more. It paid off well.

        Even with this false correction, I am still far ahead of where I was four years ago.

        Reply
        • After the above, I thought to run the numbers in the other direction. If 8% APR is a decent average for growth, and stick with Dow Jones as a headliner index, then a weekending close value of 23,800 in mid-November is a good target to hope for. Anything more than that beats expectations. Missing that target would disappoint, but still exceed the malaise we had seen before. There is a lot of assumption in so simple a calculation. but it gives a good frame of reference. Glad to read your optimism.

          Reply
  2. Stay Calm and Wash Your Hands….

    We have had a very cold wind blow through here the last couple of days to make it feel pretty cold. I have been wearing sweaters to the office as I guess that I don’t have as much fat to keep me warm. Without the wind, I can get pretty warm by walking, but when it blows through your ears, the whistling hurts my brain!

    Reply
  3. Although this might not be the best time to read a science fiction novel about the aftermath of a pandemic, I do recommend Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel.

    Reply
    • Probably one of the best modern allegories of good vs evil ever. As I recall, the killer virus escaped from a lab in the western U.S. A few folks had an immunity but not many.

      Dang, that was a good read.

      Reply
      • I can also recommend Frank Herbert’s “The White Plague,” a novel about an engineered virus that obliterated nearly half of the world – women exclusively, out of revenge for what happened to his wife and daughter.

        Interestingly, the novel was released only a little prior to the AIDS outbreak, another virus rumored to be engineered.

        Reply
  4. Is anyone out there taking payment for their labor in chicken eggs or a loaf of bread? If you are then I assume you are reading this in China, Russia. or North Korea. If you are then your labor will be over soon. The rest of us are working in capitalist countries. (sorry Bernie) If you are doing volunteer work then you are living on money that you accumulated somehow.. Hopefully you did not steal it. As for me, I used my brain. I retired at age 58 with my sole income being disability and a government pension. My wife was also still working at the time. She has since retired and she collects a government pension. Fortunately we have pretty god health insurance. It costs over $25,000 to replace one of the batteries in my chest. Without that I would probably be with my cousins that also had Parkinsons. Desiring to live out my days eating regular food instead of dog food I began investing my money, I have been very lucky and also have benefited from various aid such as my stepson, who builds houses, duplexes, etc. I say this not to brag, but at least until recently I guess that you could say I was a millionaire. One, not multi. I haven’t stolen from anybody and hopefully have contributed in a small way to employment of someone. I never manipulated stock, worked as a greatly overpaid executive or manipulated stock or misled stockholders. The current situation required that I take some common sense precautions. There will be some big economic problems in the near future, but I doubt that any factories will close because of my actions. I don’t think that I owe anyone any apologies. Thank you very much and good luck to you.

    Reply
    • I feel you are talking past me, so I’ll reply. I did not say you were wrong, incorrect, or had acquired any value in any untoward way among the many shady deeds you list. I certainly did not request an apology. Nor do I believe one is due. I only noted our interests are different. You did what is right for you. I presented what may by right for others.
      If you have ever enjoyed the film It’s a Wonderful Life, then you have heard George Bailey exhort his depositors to support each other rather than ruin each other. He also had a conversation with Mr Potter where he contrasted their belief systems. This country has room for many people with many different requirements. I wanted to display a different view without saying one was better than another. Because there are many, many more people with many, many more personal requirements. Every one just as valid as ours.
      I do hope you begin to feel a part of the whole that surrounds you. No man an island, and all that. Bon Chance.

      Reply
  5. Arlo is a good ornithologist.
    Perhaps it will gladden your hearts to know that I, as this blog’s reigning Savoyard,* have solved a mystery. In Act II of The Mikado, Gilbert has Koko answer the Mikado’s question as to where Nanki Poo has gone thus: “Knightsbridge!” Knightsbridge? This is one of the few bits of G&S where we conservative fans will accept changes related to the performance’s locale (e.g., “Emmaville!” in Bemidji or Park Rapids, “Altoona!” in Eau Claire, “The Bronx!” on Broadway.)
    Why Knightsbridge? If one or more of you want, tell me, and I will post my discovery here. If you already think you know, please hold off until I put in my two cents (pence?, tupppence?). Today Knightsbridge is a fashionable neighborhood, including nice homes, The Natural History Museum, the upscale department store Harrod’s, and some expensive eateries.
    *If one of you aspires to that claim, I challenge you to a statutory duel.
    BTW, Happy Young Frederick’s Birthday, the 29th of February. I’ve read it’s his 41st, but have not checked the math. He was apprenticed to The Pirates of Penzance. The operetta premiered in London in 1880, so he was born, I suppose, in 1856 (a leap year) or earlier.
    Peace,

    Reply
  6. I spent many years, often working 16 hours a day, trying to help people with substance abuse, mental and physical problems. I would probably still be working if I could. As it is it took me over an hour to type the above long comment and correct all of the typos. I’m not asking for sympathy. I think that I am one of the luckiest people I know. I think that my descendants deserve to benefit from my efforts and so they will. BTW, Jimmy Stewart is my favorite actor and that is my second favorite film, after Shawshank Redemption.

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  7. One more thing. No country is an island either, philosophically speaking, but this country is trying to be one. Politics are not appreciated here so I will leave it at that.

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  8. Magpie at the above MT osprey nest site. Were 2 there for a while. Sexes are identical but, at this season, one expects mated pairs. Could prob find out online if they stay as pairs or just wham-bam-thank-you-ma-am.
    Peace,

    Reply
  9. Pick a month and someone’s azaleas are blooming in my neighborhood. Posing for pictures in front of the azaleas used to be strickly an Easter thing.

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